Little Nicky Runned Away… Again

Little Nicky Fuentes is a pathetic joke. He ran away from a debate with me back in 2019. I haven’t paid any attention to him since, and that was obviously the right call since all he’s accomplished since then is to run away from more debates to which he’d previously agreed.

Okay time to end the victim grift. I confirmed Charlie Kirk was game to debate @NickJFuentes. Went to confirm the debate with Nick and was told it was a no. His reason? Because I’m a bitch.

I am embarrassed that grown adult men truly fell for this middle school drama act.

Nick is a pathological liar who created the mythology of the “most cancelled man alive”. If you are a straight man who fell for this act, you are officially gay now.

Not another word from you little frog boys, ever again.

What a contemptible fraud. This guy used to prance around talking about war on Conservatism Inc. Now he’s running away from Charlie freaking Kirk! The only reason most of Little Nicky’s followers aren’t embarrassed enough to abandon him is because they don’t actually exist. They’re just bots his puppet-masters purchased for him. The rest, presumably, are too retarded to grasp what a cowardly little bitch they’re backing.

“You don’t get it, Boomer!” they cry. “He’s just joking!”

No, he is the joke. Definitely fake, and almost certainly gay.

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Don’t Hold Your Breath

It appears President Trump is engaging in a little TACO dance in the leadup to his meeting with President Putin of Russia:

Donald Trump has warned he would ‘walk’ if Vladimir Putin does not cooperate in talks to end Russia’s offensive in Ukraine at their historic Alaska summit.

‘We’re going for a meeting with President Putin in Alaska. And I think it’s going to work out very well, and if it doesn’t, I’m going to head back home real fast,’ Trump told Fox News host Bret Baier.

The interview took place on Air Force One, hours before Trump is scheduled to land in Alaska.

Once Putin arrives in the United States, the leaders are scheduled to begin face-to-face talks at a ‘working breakfast’ in the Elmendorf Air Force Base, a news conference could follow.

Earlier, Trump told reporters Russia ran the risk of ‘very severe’ economic sanctions if Putin stalled on talks to end the three-year war in Ukraine.

He also said America would not do any business with Russia until the conflict is settled.

If Trump actually means it, it’s going to be a very short meeting. Three years of economic sanctions have done nothing but enrich Russia while draining Europe dry. As I have stated for some time now, there are some basic realities that must be accepted by all of Clown World’s puppets:

  • The monopolar world is over. The USA doesn’t give orders anymore.
  • Crimea, the four Donbass oblasts, and Odessa are Russian.
  • Russia can add everything up to the Dnieper River if they so choose.
  • No NATO on Russia’s borders.
  • No more economic sanctions if you want to avoid a multi-generational economic war that the West will eventually lose.
  • China is a better and stronger ally to Russia than the EU/UK are to the USA.

I don’t think President Trump can bring himself to accept those things. So I expect the summit will be a failure. But you never know, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

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Peter Turchin Kept the Receipts

One of my favorite analysts, Peter Turchin, is one of the few people who loves data even more than I do. He quite usefully chose a pair of opposite predictions concerning the Ukraine war back in 2022, one from Paul Krugman and one from Scott Ritter, and constructed models on the bases of those predictions in order to track the way the war unfolded.

Now, I could have told him that Paul Krugman’s model would be wrong, because Paul Krugman is always wrong. But that’s some high-level UHIQ pattern recognition in action; warning: do not try this at home! In the statistical world, one has to at least pretend to take his predictions seriously and give them a fair shake, even though one has a very high level of confidence that they’ll comprehensively fail.

One of the topics that I wrote about in End Times was Ukraine. After I turned the final version of the text to the publisher in late 2022, I continued monitoring the news about the course of the conflict there, because I was curious to see how well my assessment of the Ukrainian state (a plutocracy) and the war there (a proxy conflict between NATO and Russia) would fare as history unfolded. It was, thus, interesting to see that in the early 2023 the views on this conflict, and predictions about its future course, could be so diametrically opposed, depending on who was writing and what ideological background they came from. The tone in the MSM (main-stream media reflecting the official American position) was quite triumphant. But many American analysts, former military and intelligence professionals, held a very different view.

It occurred to me at that time that this difference in predictions is actually amenable to an empirical test. As long-time readers of my blog (now here on Substack, previous posts archived on my web site) know, I view ability to empirically test predictions from rival theories as key in doing Science (with a capital S). Just search my blog archive using the keyword “prediction” and you will see multiple posts on this subject. So I decided to conduct a formal test.

For concreteness sake, I selected two predictions, both based on an explicitly quantitative argument, but coming from opposite ends of the ideological spectrum. One was from Paul Krugman, channeling the official American position. The other was from another American, who is, however, considered as a “rogue actor” and a “Putin’s stooge”, Scott Ritter. You can read the actual quotes from both in the Introduction of the SocArxiv article, in which I “pre-registered” predictions of my model.

I won’t repeat the details here, because you can read them in the series of blogs I published two years ago, followed by the SocArxiv article that put it all together in a systematic manner and provided R scripts that allow others to replicate all my results.

They’re all well worth reading, although by the middle assessment, it’s already perfectly clear which of the two models, which Turchin labels the Economic Power model (Krugman) and the Casualties Rates model (Ritter), works better, although he combined elements of both into what he describes as an Attrition Warfare Model that appears to outperform both. This makes since, because what really matters most is Industrial Capacity and Male Population Demographics, both of which are presumably incorporated in Turchin’s AWM.

And he explains exactly what his AWM suggests at the moment.

As you can see (the dashed red line “We are here”), we’ve already entered the region where Ukrainian army can collapse at any moment, although this “moment,” according to the model can happen at any point between now and February 2027 (corresponding to 60 months after the start of the conflict). As I explained in my posts and the article, the final outcome is not much in doubt, but the rupture point is extremely difficult to predict. The situation is akin to seismology. For example, the recent Kamchatka earthquake of exceptional power was predicted 30 years ago, except nobody could know when it would actually strike. The Attrition Warfare Model is actually more precise than that. From its point of view, it would be a surprising outcome if Ukraine is still fighting beyond February 2027.

Note that I said, “from its [the model’s] point of view.” I emphasize that the future is unknowable in precise terms. In any case, the goal of this article was not to predict the future, but to use the method of scientific prediction to empirically test between two, or more theories.

The Attrition Warfare Model (AWM) encodes both alternative theories, (1) the Economic Power hypothesis, which predicts a win for Ukraine (Krugman) and (2) the Casualties Rates hypothesis, which predicts a win for Russia (Ritter). It is clear that the first theory will be rejected, no matter when the war ends.

Turchin’s work can be a little wonkish for the average individual to follow, but it’s not as complicated as it might look at first. He keeps things simple enough, and his writing style is clear enough, that with just a little concentration, that it’s both insightful and educational for anyone with the intelligence to be paying attention to these small matters of war, revolution, and societal survival.

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The US Defeat in Ukraine

There is no way to avoid the conclusion that 2023’s disastrous counteroffensive was a test of the USA’s ability to go toe-to-toe with Russia’s generals. Or that it was a test that they failed badly.

● Ukrainian, U.S. and British military officers held eight major tabletop war games to build a campaign plan. But Washington miscalculated the extent to which Ukraine’s forces could be transformed into a Western-style fighting force in a short period — especially without giving Kyiv air power integral to modern militaries.
● U.S. and Ukrainian officials sharply disagreed at times over strategy, tactics and timing. The Pentagon wanted the assault to begin in mid-April to prevent Russia from continuing to strengthen its lines. The Ukrainians hesitated, insisting they weren’t ready without additional weapons and training.
● U.S. military officials were confident that a mechanized frontal attack on Russian lines was feasible with the troops and weapons that Ukraine had. The simulations concluded that Kyiv’s forces, in the best case, could reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russian troops in the south in 60 to 90 days.
● The United States advocated a focused assault along that southern axis, but Ukraine’s leadership believed its forces had to attack at three distinct points along the 600-mile front, southward toward both Melitopol and Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov and east toward the embattled city of Bakhmut.
● The U.S. intelligence community had a more downbeat view than the U.S. military, assessing that the offensive had only a 50-50 chance of success given the stout, multilayered defenses Russia had built up over the winter and spring.

The massive distance between the wargamed results and the real-world results demonstrate how absolutely inept the current state of US military wargaming is. Keep this in mind when contemplating what the military wargames predict about the inevitable conflict in the South China Sea and in the Middle East.

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Definitely Bad News

There are four obvious things to be gleaned from this very long article about Nick Fuentes, who is an even nastier and more pathetic piece of work than I’d ever imagined.

  1. He is definitely fake, almost certainly gay, and there will very likely be a continuing series of underage sex scandals about him and those close to him.
  2. He’s obviously attempted to imitate the VFM with his RKD4NJF.
  3. His cartoon Catholicism runs more shallow than the average pedophile priest.
  4. He’s not very intelligent. Midwit at best.

“Take the loyalty pledge. I will kill, rape, and die for Nick Fuentes. Raise your right hand. Everybody raise your right hand. Raise your right hand, repeat after me: I will kill, rape, and die, for Nicholas J Fuentes.”

Nick repeatedly told his followers to take this pledge.

“I swear my undying allegiance to Nicholas J. Fuentes and the America First movement, so help me God. So help me God. Raise your hand and hold it high. I swear I will defend the white race; my nation, America; and my savior Jesus Christ. And, my loyalty to the America First movement, Nicholas J. Fuentes. So help me God.”

As I stated on last night’s Darkstream, Fuentes is the new breed of gatekeeper, the fake Christian Nationalist gatekeeper created to serve as controlled opposition to the Conservatism Inc. gatekeepers now that their gate was breached by the course of events and they are on the left side of the Overton Window rather than the right.

What is, at best, Nick’s sterility, and is much more likely something more twisted and dark, is an obvious Talmudic caricature of genuine Christian Nationalism. It’s an attempt to divert the generation of warriors for Christendom into a tangent of perversion and lies that will render them harmless to Clown World. What sort of Christian, what sort of nationalist, demands that anyone vow to commit rape for him?

Given his gift for rhetoric, it’s no surprise that Milo summarized it best:

Literally the only thing Catholic about Nick Fuentes is how soft he is on homosexual predators.

But God will not be mocked. The downfall of Nick Fuentes is certain. He can run away from me, from Owen Benjamin, and from other men, but he cannot run away from his accountability to God.

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The Military War is Over

At least, that’s what Col. Macgregor thinks.

What I’m trying to say is that you have this picture on the one side of Ukrainian forces that are literally bled white, that are falling apart—not for lack of courage or any of that sort of thing. That’s nonsense. It’s simply impossible for them to mount an effective resistance against the onrushing Russians.

And then on the Russian side, you have this 21st century force, extraordinarily well-equipped, technologically savvy, essentially knocking drones out of the air with either electronic warfare or other means and moving not at high speed, but fast enough that the opposing force has no chance of recovering.

And right now they keep talking about the so-called Azov formations. I guess there’s something like four, five, six, seven, eight brigades left. I don’t know what their strength is. There’s probably not much. But these are the sort of diehard Nazis. They seem to be nowhere in the path of the Russians. I think they’ve beat a path elsewhere. So I’m not sure there’s really much in front of the advancing Russian forces.

So from a purely military standpoint, I would say this is the end of the war.

“Is it fair to say that Russia is close to achieving its military objectives in the war if those objectives are the acquisition of the four oblasts?”

“Oh, well that’s being achieved. But remember, the key thing for them has always been not so much capturing territory, but annihilating the Ukrainian forces on the ground. That’s the problem. So they’re very force-oriented in what they do. Now, we may see finally a buildup of forces in various places of 100,000 or more that are large enough and well-supplied enough that they can move deeper.

I think you’re going to see that in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. The bridges over the Dnipro are intact. Zaporizhzhia has real strategic value. If they decide to cross the river, they can go north or south from there—attacking north to Kyiv or south to Odessa. I think those are the decisions that they’re going to make now in the next couple of weeks. And we’re going to see more and more movement.

But the point is the Ukrainian force is almost annihilated. There are still some people left, and they’re not going to stop. As long as there’s anyone from these Azov units around, I would expect the Russians to plow forward. But securing the Russian areas, the Russian-speaking areas, yes—but then the next question is, what are you going to do to secure the outcome of the war? They’re going to be victorious militarily. That’s not enough. In other words, how do you come to an arrangement with somebody who is confident in the west that brings you the measure of security that you want?

All of this has been about protecting Russia. This was never about conquering territory and marching west into Poland or Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia. That’s all nonsense. And I think that’s in the back of people’s minds right now in Moscow.

The problem, of course, is that there is a very good chance that President Trump and his advisors don’t understand that the time for playing word games with Russia is over. If the USA can’t be a reliable security partner capable of keeping the Ukrainians and the Europeans under control, and there are a lot of reasons to believe it cannot, then Russia will do whatever it has to do in order to establish a sufficiently secure situation.

While I hope something useful will come of Friday’s meeting between the presidents, I am not very optimistic that anything substantive will do so. Although if the rumor of a shipment of an Israeli adrenochrome seized by Russians are factually based, one hopes that Putin will bring it to Trump’s attention.

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Definitely Fake, Possibly Worse

Big Bear has a theory about Nick Fuentes:

A full breakdown of who Nick Fuentes is, who’s backing him and why. This is very detailed with clips of him describing all of my claims. The dude openly promotes pedophelia and honey pots his listeners. Over and over again.

I don’t think he’s a fed. It’s way way worse.

Now, I don’t pay enough attention to Nick Fuentes to have much of an opinion on him other than the fact that I know, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that he is a coward, he is a liar, and he is a manufactured entity who is propped up by inorganic means. Who manufactured him and who props him up, I do not know, because I realized he was irrelevant and intellectually unserious back in 2019 and therefore saw no reason to start paying attention to anything he said or did. A search of this blog will confirm that there are very, very few references to him to be found here, aside from a mention of his 2020 banning by YouTube and a 2023 reference to the obvious similarities between Fuentes and the failed attempt to make Jon Zherka a thing.

You may recall the list of signs that an individual is controlled opposition and his “popularity” is being manufactured for him by the mainstream media, as in the cases of Ben Shapiro, Jordan Peterson, Nick Fuentes, and Andrew Tate, just to name a few.

I will point out that one mistake commonly made by midwits is to assume that because A is attacking B, A cannot be in the employ of B. This assumption is fundamentally false, because everyone, on every side, is well-aware of the utility of being able to control the opposition. Hence the joke about never asking a “white nationalist” about the racial heritage of his significant other; it is safe to assume that most Internet Nazis are actually funded by AIPAC contributors in order to play the role of the over-the-top bad guys in order to provide the impetus for AIPAC’s endless campaign against anti-semitism.

This is Clown World, after all, where everything is literally fake and reliably gay.

But Owen’s instincts should not be ignored. Once he saw through the charade that is Jordan Peterson and understood the mechanism by which these frauds are manufactured and elevated, his natural ability to sniff out BS became applicable to the intellectual and ideological gatekeepers. I don’t know if he is correct about Fuentes being the puppet of an even darker group than the one to whom the Petersons and Shapiros are beholden, but if he is, we’ll eventually learn the truth.

One thing that separates both Big Bear and I from all the midwits who keep falling for these charlatans is that unlike them, we don’t listen for confirmation. It means nothing to either of us to hear that someone appears to agree with anything we say or with what we believe. What we listen for, what we pay attention to, are the anomalies. Because it’s always in the anomalies that the truth can ultimately be perceived.

Words are just words, and they mean less than nothing in the mouths of inversive liars to whom deceit is a virtue and fraud is a moral imperative. The only words that really matter are the Words of God, which informs us that we are to judge both men and their words by the fruit that they bear.

We are told that Nick Fuentes has 710k followers on X, which utterly dwarfs the 800 subscribers that Big Bear and I presently share on UATV. So I wonder, what fruit has been born of this massive following and the resources it implies?

I note that Nick Fuentes claimed to be “the most cancelled man” back in 2022, five years after I was banned from Twitter. I’m still banned. My wife is still banned. Fuentes has 709,900 followers there… And finally, the reason that I know he is a manufactured fraud is because manufactured frauds always run away from debate with me because they are not allowed to “platform” me.

Which, you will note, Nick Fuentes did, repeatedly, back in 2019. The problem is that I have always been, and will always be, far more relevant than the fraudulent little freak is, whether Owen is correct about him or not. It is an undeniable fact that more people around the world utilize the very words and ideas that I create than even know who he is. So if you’re a Nick Fuentes fan, remember that when challenged in the very manner he invited, he behaved exactly like Jordan Peterson and Ben Shapiro.

“I don’t want to debate him because it’s too boring, dude, it’s too boring. Everybody would think that would be exciting, but, I can tell you for a fact that there would be no entertainment value in debating somebody as boring and as slow as Vox Day. So the guy’s boring, and he’s irrelevant, you know, who’s watching the Darkstream? If he can pull more than 2000 viewers concurrent watching the Darkstream, maybe I’d consider him worth my time, but, I mean the guy’s a has-been, you could say he never was. You know, this is somebody who’s been floating around on the scene like writing books? And, what does he have to show for it? Infogalactic? A gay comic book? You know, all these like just stupid projects that don’t go anywhere.”

And in the event you’re dumb enough to believe that your binary thinking model is capable of addressing issues that intrinsically involve some elements of deception, please be advised that you should keep your irrelevant opinions to yourself.

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Ukrainian People Want Surrender

But the illegitimate Kiev regime that rules over them at the behest of Clown World rejects the will of the people.

There’s some interesting and vital data which was released last week, just ahead of this coming Friday’s historic Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, which will focuse on finding a solution to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, though the US leader has just tempered expectations by calling it a “feel-out meeting”.

Gallup released a poll last Thursday which demonstrates a dramatic shift in Ukrainian public opinion, with 69% of the population now favoring a negotiated settlement to end the grinding war as soon as possible. General war weariness has long been a feature of the conflict, which has been raging for over 540 days at this point, and has taken at least tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands of lives. Many Ukrainians fled abroad during the first year, and huge amounts of people are still internally displaced in the war-ravaged country.

The fresh Gallup poll found that just 24% support continuing the fight until achieving a military victory, which is a stark reversal from views held at the start of the war more than three years ago.

And yet this undefined goal of ‘pushing on until victory’ seems to remain the Zelensky government’s policy. The Ukrainian leader has shown no signs whatsoever of being willing to make significant compromise to find a lasting truce, including on territorial concessions.

There was a similar Gallup survey of the Ukrianian population closer to the beginnign war, in 2022. At that early point Gallup found that 72% of Ukrainians wanted to keep fighting, while just 22% supported peace talks.

But since then Russia’s strategy has become clear – to use its overwhelming manpower and artillery and missile supply to steadily grind down Ukraine’s dwindling manpower and resolve. It has become a war of attrition, and Russia has shown itself steady and prepared for such a long conflict. And this is probably why the same survey found that Ukrainians’ hopes for swift admission into either the EU or NATO are fading.

The more evident it becomes that Russia is ‘winning’ the war – the less that the West’s political establishment wants to risk, also amid fears of potential run-up to direct confrontation between NATO and Moscow.

Ukraine should have accepted the deal it was offered by Russia in 2022, the one that it foolishly turned down at the recommendation of Boris Johnson in the mistaken belief that NATO was able to successfully fight a land war with Russia. And it should have offered to surrender a year ago, when the inexorable math of military production had made it clear that attrition warfare heavily favored Russia and its allies in BRICS.

The best realistic outcome of this week’s meeting between the US and Russian presidents is for President Trump to agree to withdraw all military and financial support for both Ukraine and the EU and to announce his intention to ask the US Senate to withdraw from NATO. That’s really all that President Putin needs to force the delusional people running the EU NGO and the Kiev puppet regime to deal with the military reality they are presently facing.

The sooner this war ends, the sooner the great conflict between Clown World and the nations can proceed to the next theater.

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The Marvel Method

The Dark Herald shares an insider’s description of the Marvel method of movie-making at Arkhaven.

Like Matt Shakman and the writers of #FantasticFour, I’ve sat in the ‘creative meetings’ at @MarvelStudios. They’re horrible.

You basically sit in a room with Kevin Feige and Lou D’Esposito and try to pitch your movie while realizing Kevin just wants you to dictate his rushed thoughts. Victoria [Alonso] used to be in these, but Kevin and Lou had so mistreated her that in one of my #Blade meetings she just showed up with sugar cookies she’d baked to improve morale.

You’re told NOT to pitch ideas from the comics because Lou isn’t a big comic guy and it’ll turn him off.

You talk about craft, story, and characters only for Kevin and Lou to say ‘yeah well, all we need to do is make sure it’s fun.’

There’s no spark. There’s no vision. Marvel is a slaughterhouse factory where you watch fresh meat get spoiled as it slowly makes its way through the assembly gears of mediocre thinking — and this weird hatred for their own product.

It’s become increasingly obvious that they only got lucky with the original Iron Man – which really was only a great movie for the first 15 minutes – because Disney wasn’t involved at the time. It’s really remarkable how far they’ve been able to coast on less than 45 minutes total of genuinely good movie-making.

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The Irrelevant EU

It’s really remarkable to see how the European Union is doubling down on its own irrelevance:

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has called for more pressure on Moscow ahead of the summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart, Donald Trump.

Foreign ministers of the bloc’s member states held an urgent video-conference on Monday, after it was announced that the Russian and US leaders will meet face-to-face in Alaska on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine conflict and other issues.

Following the discussions, Kallas issued a post on X to offer the bloc’s “support for US steps that will lead to a just peace” between Moscow and Kiev.

“Transatlantic unity, support to Ukraine and pressure on Russia is how we will end this war and prevent future Russian aggression in Europe,” she insisted.

Transatlantic unity, support to Ukraine, and pressure on Russia has been the entire US-UK-EU strategy since February 2022. It has completely and comprehensively failed. How is more of the same going to do anything but ensure the total destruction of Ukraine, which is absolutely unnecessary given that all Russia really wants is the five regions it has already annexed, plus Odessa?

Words. All these people have is words. Why did anyone ever pay any attention to them?

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