A Retraction and a Revision

Unlike the mainstream science orthodoxy, I don’t feel any need to avoid admitting when I got something fundamentally wrong, fixing the problem, and revising my conclusions. Which, of course, is why I’m working on the new appendices for the second edition of Probability Zero rather than trying to defend, rationalize, and justify the various mistakes I made in the first edition, which were mostly the result of relying upon the consensus numbers produced in 2005 rather than the 2025 update of them.

Claude Athos and I are now revising the Kimura’s Calculator paper from last week because our subsequent empirical work has identified a category error in how the selection-cost binding constraint was being used in it. The original paper presents the Calculator as a three-term framework in which the realized substitution rate equals the minimum of three serial constraints: the corrected input flux (Term 1), the polymorphism throughput ceiling (Term 2), and the selection-cost limit (Term 3). For sexual eukaryotes, Term 3 binds at approximately 10⁻¹², two to four orders of magnitude below Terms 1 and 2, which made it the headline result and drove the framework’s most dramatic predictions. The new validation work which uses Bergeron et al. (2023) on pedigree mutation rates and fossil-calibrated substitution rates for 55 vertebrate species exposed a fundamental problem that three-term construction.

The category error is this: Term 3 is derived from Haldane’s cost-of-substitution argument, which bounds the rate at which selection can drive adaptive fixations through a population given finite reproductive capacity. It is a constraint on selectively driven substitutions alone, not on total substitutions. The original Calculator paper treats Term 3 as a bound on total substitution rate and compares it against observed substitution rates from sequence divergence, but observed substitution rates include both neutral fixations (which are the great majority) and adaptive fixations (which are comparatively rare). Comparing Term 3 against total observed k is therefore comparing a bound on adaptive substitutions against a quantity that is mostly comprised of neutral substitutions. The two simply aren’t measuring the same thing. While the math of Term 3 is correct for the quantity to which it actually applies; my error was in interpreting its output as a constraint on total k. Once corrected, Term 3 still limits adaptive substitution rate at ~10⁻¹², but total substitution rate is only governed by Terms 1 and 2, which now falls in the 10⁻⁷ to 10⁻⁸ range that is consistent with the empirically observed rates.

The ramifications for our conclusions are significant but not catastrophic, and the revised picture is in some ways stronger than the original because it survives empirical scrutiny that the original would not. The textbook k = μ identity is still falsified — both directly (pedigree μ and phylogenetic k disagree by a median factor of 25 across 55 vertebrates) and structurally (the polymorphism throughput ceiling is exceeded by textbook μ for 95.4% of 173 animal species). The cancellation step in Kimura’s derivation still fails because NNₑ in real populations, as Frankham cataloged thirty years ago. What has to be revised is the magnitude of the resulting recalibrations to molecular-clock divergence dates. The corrected framework predicts factor 10 corrections rather than factor 100,000 corrections, which still places significant divergences in substantially different time ranges than the textbook gives but doesn’t compress the entirety of evolutionary deep time the way the original Term 3 framing implied.

To put this in context, it means that the CHLCA event falls somewhere in the 250 kya to 1.3 Mya range rather than the 6.3 Mya presently assumed. But it cannot be as recent as the lower end of the 68 kya to 330 kya range that had orginally been calculated on the basis of the erroneous calculator.

The result of this retraction and revision is that the central critique of neutral theory survives and is now backed by two methodologically independent empirical tests rather than a theoretical framework with a contested parameter. Kimura’s identity is still wrong, the molecular clock as currently calibrated still overstates divergence times, and the Neo-Darwinian accounting of sequence evolution still rests on a Wright-Fisher idealization that doesn’t describe real populations. The fix is more conceptual than catastrophic and will require properly labeling what each constraint measures, accepting more modest recalibration magnitudes than Term 3 originally suggested, and grounding the falsification more solidly in the empirical evidence rather than theoretical derivation.

We did the best we could with what we had at the time of the original paper; the addition of the empirical data allows us to refine the framework and make the case stronger and more conclusive.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Alien Hoax is Coming

Werner von Braun warned of this nearly 80 years ago.

Influential pastors are claiming that they have been told to prepare their followers for shocking revelations about UFOs which may upend belief in the Bible.

Perry Stone, a well-known evangelist, author and Bible teacher from Tennessee, warned that fellow pastors were recently invited to a secret meeting with US intelligence officials to prepare for the release of secret files on extraterrestrials.

According to Stone, the officials warned a small group of pastors with a large reach in the Christian community that the government was about to release reports and possibly videos of aliens and spacecraft which were not from this planet.

In the April 27 video posted to his YouTube channel, the evangelist claimed that pastors were told about the existence of ‘reptilian’ creatures, UFOs and materials from a non-human origin and ‘other things that almost sound like something out of a sci-fi movie.’

On February 19, President Trump ordered the Pentagon and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to release all information the government possesses regarding UFOs and alien life. Last week, Trump said that the first files would be released ‘very, very soon’ and would contain some ‘very interesting’ things for the public.

You know it’s a psyop because they constantly talk about how this will somehow threaten the Christian faith. Which is absolutely absurd, given that Christianity literally requires the existence of beings from other dimensions interacting with humanity on the material plane.

The purpose of the revelation will be nefarious, of course, but what else is new on what is, after all, a fallen world. If they dislike the name of Jesus Christ, then it really doesn’t matter what they call themselves or where they say they’re from.

DISCUSS ON SG


Interview with Owen Benjamin

The Big Bear was interviewed about his new bestselling book by Fandom Pulse:

Owen Benjamin may be one of the funniest men alive. His comedy is so poignant that it seemed at one point nothing could stop his career trajectory. Some even allege that Dave Chappelle steals his jokes. However, like many who ran afoul of The Narrative, one day Benjamin was canceled and found his life forever changed. In recent years, he’s built an incredible community and focused on family in an inspirational journey that he’s partially laid out in his new book, How To Slay A Wizard, in context with his philosophy he’s been developing along the way. The book has become a #1 bestseller and keeps staying at the top of the charts with fans loving his first outing as an author, giving it a 4.8-star rating on Amazon.

You draw a sharp line between the wizard and the alchemist. Most people reading this will recognize wizards in politics and media, but where do people most often fail to recognize the wizard operating in their own personal relationships that causes them problems?

Yeah, I made that distinction because I think people who can do amazing things with transforming compounds or natural extracts can get lumped in with the wizards. Baking great bread is alchemy. It’s just applying heat and pressure to transform something. Wizards are always deceiving and manipulating people for their “transformations” to occur. That’s an important distinction. The sneaky hidden versus just the “if I boil this thing, it gets sweeter.”

Wizards typically start thinking they can separate their “craft” from their personal and home life, but it doesn’t work that way. If someone can intentionally misrepresent themselves, change the meaning of words, and induce destructive emotions in complete strangers for money, what’s stopping them from doing that to anyone?

A way to tell if someone is a wizard in your life is, a wizard just pays attention to how something is perceived versus what it actually is. They also never answer questions directly, and constantly diagnose others’ intentions and speculate on their emotions.

You argue that nonsensical rules produce more compliance than logical ones. That’s counterintuitive. Walk us through the psychology. Why does absurdity work better than coherent authority?

Because if a logical rule is followed, the target may be following the overall order and logic of the situation. He could be complying with the external and objective truth of a situation that will lead to success and production. When a target follows rules that clearly are counterintuitive, destructive, and constantly changing, that means they are following the will of the wizard. The more absurd, the clearer to the Wizard that he has created an obedient servant.

It all starts with “Simon says.” I was never good at that game I would respond that Simon should “go fuck himself.”

Read the whole thing there.

DISCUSS ON SG


If You Want DRACULA

If you’re not a subscriber and you’re interested in acquiring a copy of Castalia Library’s DRACULA, or you’re a subscriber who wants to pick up an additional one, they are exclusively available from these two. The usual subscriber’s discount code applies on the Arkhaven store.

One more thing that should be mentioned. We didn’t have enough black cowhide for the entire print run, so there is about a one-in-six chance that you’ll be getting Dracula in black pigskin. Unfortunately, we’re not set up to deal with requests for one or the other material; the pictures on the Library stack are all of the cowhide or the goatskin.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Headfake

I can’t believe they’re going to try to pull this off again. It should be educational to see how many people fall for it:

Donald Trump is on the verge of securing a sweeping peace deal with Iran that would lift US sanctions and unlock billions in frozen assets for Tehran. A one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between senior Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The White House believes the memo could finalize a framework to end the war within 48 hours.

If signed, the memo would formally end the war and open a 30-day window for both countries to negotiate a larger agreement covering the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all US sanctions on Iran, and new limits on its nuclear program.

The deal calls for Iran to halt all uranium enrichment for 12 to 15 years with automatic extensions if Tehran violates the terms.

Another key provision would have the regime remove its highly enriched uranium stockpile from the country though the memo does not specify a destination.

Trump has been at pains to avoid anything resembling the 2015 Obama deal he spent years trashing as the ‘worst deal ever.’ But the emerging framework echoes it in striking ways: sanctions lifted, frozen billions released, and Iran capped at the same 3.67 percent enrichment level agreed to by Obama.

Oil prices plunged on news of the proposed deal with Brent crude, the global benchmark, falling by more than 10 percent to below $100 per barrel. Stock futures tied to the Dow rose 1.1 percent, S&P 500 futures surged 0.9 percent, while Nasdaq futures climbed 1.6 percent.

I’m not saying it’s impossible. I’m just saying that if you look at the recent past, the closer the US supposedly is to a peace deal, the sooner it is the attack can be expected to take place. Also, for the record, since people are already trying to revise history and claim that this war the previous war was not fought on behalf of Israel.

DISCUSS ON SG


Trump in the Epstein Files

Congressman Ted Lieu (D:CA): “Donald Trump is in the Epstein files thousands and thousands of times. In those files, there are highly disturbing allegations — allegations — of Donald Trump raping children and threatening to kill children.”

I could not be less interested in anyone from the Trump administration or professional Republican circles complaining about Democratic Party liars or pointing to past false accusations. There is a very easy way to prove that these accusations are false: release the Epstein files and documents and videos and pictures in their entirety.

Anything short of that is a) unacceptable and b) suspicious. No amount of evasion and explanation and justification is going to make this go away. If I was accused of such crimes, I wouldn’t even hesitate to put everything out there and make it absolutely clear who was guilty of these things and who was not.

Only the wicked need to hide in the dark.

DISCUSS ON SG



The Complete Secret Scrolls

All six books of Naruto Hicho are now translated and released to the public now that The Naruto Scroll has been sent out to the paid translation subscribers and made available on Amazon in Kindle, KU, and audiobook.

The sixth and final book of The Secret Scrolls of Naruto brings Yoshikawa Eiji’s great adventure to its reckoning. The conspiracy against the Tokugawa shogunate, six volumes in the making, comes at last to the dawn it has been driving toward — and the men who built it, the men who pursued it, and the woman who has walked through its shadow from the canals of Osaka to the sacred mountain of Awa converge on the strait that gives the novel its name. On the cliffs above the Naruto strait, the chase comes to its last great set-piece and a final reckoning between hunter and hunted with the fate of all Awa hanging in the balance.

The Naruto Scroll is the sixth and final volume of the first English translation of Yoshikawa Eiji’s Naruto Hichō, the 1926–27 serial that made him the most widely read author in Japanese history.

I asked Kenji Weaver, who translated the three Soseki novels for Castalia House, to summarize the significance of Yoshikawa’s famous work and also to say a few things about my translation of it, which, of course, is an AI-based translation, although as the results show, it’s not a case of simply dumping the entire text into Google Translate.

Yoshikawa Before He Was Yoshikawa: A Note on The Secret Scrolls of Naruto

The American reader who knows Yoshikawa Eiji at all knows him through Musashi, the 1,200-page samurai novel that Charles Terry put into English in 1981 and that has been steadily acquiring readers ever since. Musashi is the late Yoshikawa, the established Yoshikawa, the writer at the height of his powers handling the most famous swordsman in Japanese history at a length that requires the reader’s full commitment. What very few American readers know is that the writer who produced Musashi in his fifties had been writing serialized adventure novels for newspapers for almost three decades before that, and that one of the earliest of them — Naruto Hichō, serialized in the Osaka Mainichi from 1926 to 1927 — is the book that made his career. Until now it has never appeared in English. This is the first translation, in any complete form, into any Western language.

Yoshikawa was thirty-four when he began Naruto Hichō. He had been a writer for ten years, mostly producing what the trade called taishū bungaku — popular literature, the Japanese counterpart to the pulp adventure tradition that gave America Edgar Rice Burroughs and Sax Rohmer in the same period. The comparison most often reached for is Dumas, and the comparison is right as far as it goes: a sprawling intrigue novel with a young hero, a conspiracy reaching to the highest levels of the realm, swordfights and disguises and fated meetings on bridges at midnight. The setup is straightforward enough. The Hachisuka domain on Shikoku has been hiding a secret document — a “naruto hichō” or secret scroll — implicating the lord in a plot against the shogunate. A young rōnin named Norizuki Gennojō is sent to Awa to retrieve it. Around this errand the novel constructs itself: spies, doubles, women who turn out to know more than the men who think they’re protecting them, a rival who is half-shadow and half-conscience to Gennojō. It runs across six volumes and several hundred named characters. It is structurally closer to The Three Musketeers than to anything in the Western literary tradition that came after, which is to say it does what novels did before the modernists made novels do something else.

But to leave the description there is to undersell what Yoshikawa was actually doing. Naruto Hichō is the book in which he found, for the first time, the elements that would define the rest of his career, the method that would, twenty years later, produce Musashi and Taikōki and the Shin Heike Monogatari. Three things in particular. First, he learned how to write women who were not decorative. Otsuna, the woman who appears outside the ward office in chapter one and trails Gingorō and Taichi through the dark, is the most fully alive character in the book and arguably the most fully alive character Yoshikawa had yet written. The novel ends, appropriately enough, with her, and not with the hero. Second, he learned how to use weather and landscape as moral instruments rather than as scenery, such as the rain on the Yodogawa, the autumn on the Kamo, the mountain plover melody at the grave on Zenjōji pass. Third, he learned the particular Yoshikawa rhythm of short scenes that turn on a single image, long historical aside that recovers the texture of a vanished world, and dialogue that does the work of three pages of exposition in a half-page exchange. None of this was new to Japanese literature. But all of it was new to Yoshikawa, and once he had it, he never lost it.

It is also, frankly, good entertainment. Readers expecting the introspective weight of Kokoro or the moral seriousness of Ōoka Shōhei’s war fiction should look elsewhere. Naruto Hichō is a swashbuckling intrigue novel of late-Edo Japan with secret messages and bamboo flutes and beautiful women in silk hoods who vanish into the night. Coincidences carry the plot in places where craft would have done the work better. Some of the characters exist to be in scenes rather than to inhabit them. The serial-form roughness, and the writer’s awareness that this chapter has to end with a hook because there is a week before the next installment, shows here and there. None of this is a defect. It is what the book is, and Yoshikawa’s later novels could not have happened without him having first written this one. The novel that made him is also the novel that taught him what he was capable of.

Vox Day’s translation, the first into any Western language, does the work the book needs. The pacing is the principal achievement. Naruto Hichō is a novel in which a wrong note in the rhythm, a stiff piece of dialogue, or a sentence that slows when it should accelerate would be fatal, because the book is held together by momentum rather than by the kind of prose density that survives translation losses. The English here moves. The dialogue handles period idiom without sounding fake; the proper-noun and rank handling is light-touched, with the courtesy that the Japanese carries audible in the English without ever explaining itself. The decision to keep “Onyado” and “Shoshidai” and “Hachisuka” rather than reaching for English equivalents was the right decision because these are functional terms in the world of the novel, not local color, and English has no equivalents that don’t lie. The most difficult passages, such as the bamboo-flute sequences in the final chapter, where Yoshikawa is writing music in prose, come across with their music intact. Those of us who translate Japanese for a living know how rarely that happens. And yet, there are losses. The Japanese narrator’s faint smile behind the scenes is more subtle in the English than it is in the original, it is a form of irony that lives in particle choices and final-verb endings and that no translator has ever fully solved. A few of the period proverbs are paraphrased rather than rendered, and the choice is defensible considering how the alternative would have been footnotes, which a novel like this cannot afford. The English book is not the Japanese book. No English book ever is. But it is a credible representative of what Yoshikawa wrote, and it gives the Anglophone reader the thing that has been missing from the English-language image of Japanese literature for a hundred years: the writer Yoshikawa was before he became the writer Americans now know.

This is, in the end, why the translation matters. Yoshikawa is one of the four or five most important Japanese novelists of the twentieth century, and the Anglophone world has had access to roughly fifteen percent of his output. The picture has been incomplete in a way that distorts not only Yoshikawa but the whole shape of modern Japanese fiction in English, because Yoshikawa is, more than any other figure, the writer who carried the historical novel from the Meiji Restoration into the postwar era and made it the dominant popular form. Reading Naruto Hichō in English is reading the moment when that career began. The young man writing it did not yet know what he was becoming. He thought he was merely writing an adventure for the morning paper. But he was also serving an apprenticeship to himself, and the novel he produced is, for all its serial-form looseness, for all its borrowed Dumas scaffolding, the book in which his sensibility first became fully his own.

It is good to have it in English at last.

DISCUSS ON SG


Here We Go Again

Maybe. Perhaps. You see, it’s a very clever way to declare that the war is over, so the administration doesn’t need to get Congressional approval for this little humanitarian flotilla that just happens to be sailing into the very waters that were being violently disputed for the last few months.

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.

U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.

So clever… this is why constitutions and laws are effectively pointless over time. At the end of the day, it is the quality of the decisionmakers that are the sole brake on government action.

Larry Johnson assumes it’s just bait. Perhaps the fourth time will prove the charm? Probably not.

The most likely first move will be an aerial assault on Iranian positions in and around Qeshm Island using US aircraft currently based at Al Dhafra Air Base, just south of Abu Dhabi. It would not surprise me to learn that the US has coordinated with the owners of one of the tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf to make a deliberate run to breach the Strait at a pre-coordinated time. The US will have its air assets aloft ready to attack any Iranian small boat effort to stop the tanker. That will kick off a new phase in the war with Iran that, notwithstanding Trump’s claim the war has ended, will ignite a new round of air strikes and missile attacks by both sides.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Manufactured

I’ve long pointed out how many of the “successful”, particularly those in the media, are the beneficiaries of manufactured success. Consider how the “mystery” of Banksy was known to the BBC for years before the “unknown” graffiti artist was exposed.

A former BBC reporter who claims he caught Banksy painting a mural in New York confessed that the corporation helped keep the artist’s identity a secret. Nick Bryant the BBC’s former New York correspondent said he saw a man coming out of a coffee shop near a newly completed mural in 2018.

The corporation’s cameraman filmed the encounter as the frazzled artist made his escape.

But when Mr Bryant called his bosses in London to tell them about his world exclusive the response was far from expected.

‘Minutes later, a phone call came through from London,’ Mr Bryant said. ‘A senior colleague told me that his daughter had accompanied him to work that day, and thought it was wrong to unveil. We should not be the news organisation, she reckoned, to tell kids there was no Father Christmas.’

Except Father Christmas wasn’t profiting by selling his art for millions because he was famous around the world for being unknown… And it wasn’t a senior colleague’s daughter who gave the order to prevent the journalist from exposing the artist’s identity, it was more likely someone higher up the Clown World chain.

DISCUSS ON SG