The Insane Plan

According to Tucker Carlson, this is the plan that the junior Senator from Connecticut described as “insane”.

Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.

Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.

To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.

The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.

And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.

We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.

Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.

They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.

One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.

The last thing Americans need or want is more war for Israel. But the fake Trump is an AIPAC construct, so the real question is how far American Jews are willing to risk further abusing and misusing their influence over the US military, because they are very well aware of the potential costs of the fallout for them when – not if – things go wrong.

And considering how far wrong everything has already gone for Israel and its supporters this year, the rational thing to do would be avoiding any further war. The problem is that there are no shortage of war hawks in Israel who actually think that the US retreating from the Middle East will be to the advantage of Greater Israel, and that the situation is a situation where heads Iran loses, tails the US loses, and both results are to Israel’s advantage.

Which, to be honest, doesn’t appear very likely, and many of the US military leaders clearly know it.

US President Donald Trump may scapegoat his defense and military chiefs for the state of the Iran war, according to a Sunday report, even as he considers resuming attacks on the country following the US midterm elections on Tuesday.

Trump reportedly clashed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over that question in a phone call over the weekend, the latest in a series of disagreements they have had about whether to attack. The premier — who is in a precarious position after losing his majority in the Knesset in Tuesday’s election — was said to have pushed for a return to strikes, while Trump favors giving more time to negotiations.

The war is deeply unpopular in the United States, and with no resolution to the conflict in sight, is expected to hurt Trump’s Republican Party in Tuesday’s votes for the US Congress. Oil prices have risen as Iran continues to obstruct shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Against that backdrop, according to The Atlantic magazine, Trump is looking for someone to blame for the course of the war and is speaking with advisers about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Both have been leading advocates of the war. Trump’s anger has reportedly grown since his advisers mistakenly assured him ahead of the war’s start in late February that it would be over long before the midterms.

So why would you listen again to those who were wrong the last three times. Especially in light of what some of the pollsters are observing: “For the first time in my lifetime, the polling is that Americans want AIPAC out and they don’t want to send any more money to Israel.”

UPDATE: Not too much doubt about where the Russians and the Chinese stand on more US military action in the Middle East. It is perhaps worth noting that the Russian Defense Minister happens to be visiting China now.

  • RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS SIGNALS OF PLANNED NEW MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN ARE CAUSING EXTREME CONCERN
  • Director Wang Yi has elaborated on China’s position on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region. China believes that military means are not the solution. They will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interest. It is hoped that relevant parties will stick to peace, resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation, and restore peace and tranquility in the Middle East and the Gulf region at an early date. – Mao Ning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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The Decline in College Football Attendance

A few theories:

These are my top 5 reasons why college football attendance is dwindling:

  1. The death of regional games and rivalries. Too many schools are now in conferences that make no geographic sense. Having gone to Arizona State, seeing annual games with the LA, Bay Area, Oregon & Washington schools replaced w/ conference games against schools from Kansas, Texas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia doesn’t resonate. This is being felt everywhere.
  2. Conference imbalance. We now have a world where the Big Ten and SEC are inherently favored for earning CFP bids and higher rankings before each season begins. The ACC and Big 12 are Tier 2 leagues, and the G6 schools are essentially in a separate class. This has produced an uneven, biased landscape that is entirely unfair.
  3. Noise pollution. I go to college football games to tailgate, watch football and listen to marching bands – not for blaring music and sound effects, hyperventilating PA announcers, and flashing light shows. The environment has been degraded.
  4. Expanded College Football Playoff. We’ve entered an era where if your school isn’t contending for a CFP bid, it’s playing out the string.
  5. The transfer portal. Annual free agency has many schools turning over rosters by more than 50-75%. The connections between players and fans has greatly eroded. Most fans can’t name 10 guys on their teams any more. That’s not ideal.

The sport needs more stability, the return of regional conferences, better game day atmospheres, and a more level playing field.

I’m of two minds about the recent changes, some of which have been good and some of which are obviously bad. First, I have to admit that I’m an NFL fan, not a college football fan. I do support the Golden Gophers, but very casually, and I haven’t attended a game since 1978. I’m not apologizing for refusing to attend games at the Metrodome; a worse atmosphere for college football would probably require a stadium built on the Moon.

The initial College Football Playoff and the inauguration of NIL were great and led to increased competitiveness inside and across the conferences. It was never good when Nebraska was beating Missouri 97-0 because the third-string offensive linemen for Nebraska were better than Missouri’s starters.

I think the problem is the superconferences and the short-sighted money people being too involved. Hopefully the pendulum will swing back in favor of tradition soon, before it is too late. That being said, I’ve watched more college football in the last two years than in the previous 30.

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Post-Midterm Retreat

Europeans are rightly concerned that the US military is going to further withdraw from NATO if the Republicans get hammered in the mid-term elections:

NATO is worried that Donald Trump could significantly reduce US involvement in the bloc if the Republican Party loses the midterms on November 3, Politico has reported, citing European officials and diplomats.

Officials in the military bloc are “bracing for a worst-case scenario” as a result of the vote on Tuesday, the outlet said in an article on Sunday.

If a victory for the Democrats blocks Trump from legislating domestically, he may decide to go after NATO to rally his MAGA base, diplomats told the outlet.

The US could withdraw thousands more troops from Europe, cut American funding for the bloc, or limit the NATO-backed PURL arms-buying scheme for Ukraine, they suggested.

Nothing has cost the Republican more votes than their enthusiasm for foreign adventures. That’s why gas and energy prices are out of control. And no one voted to defend Israel or Ukraine; US involvement in both wars is a complete negative for Americans. If the politicians weren’t wholly-owned by AIPAC, not a dime would be wasted on either.

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Haitian Invasion Update

Major Offensive by Salvadoran Commandos Against Armed Gangs in Forested Areas

Salvadoran special forces are said to have launched a major land and air military operation in the forested areas where several armed groups operating in Haiti have entrenched themselves. According to reports, around twenty gang members, including a leader known by the pseudonym “Commandant Galaxy,” are said to have been neutralized during this offensive.

The operation reportedly involved the use of drones and combat helicopters. Airstrikes are said to have targeted several fortified camps serving as rear bases for the armed groups, with the aim of dismantling their strategic positions. At the same time, commandos are said to have intervened at the residence of a gang leader nicknamed “Ezol.” This operation is said to have resulted in the liberation of 18 people held captive, including 12 young girls who are said to have been victims of sexual exploitation and used as leverage to extort ransoms from their families. A significant sum of money, estimated at over a million dollars, is also said to have been discovered inside the residence.

El Salvador Rejects Any Negotiation with Gang Leaders

In response to the intensification of operations, several gang leaders are said to have attempted to make contact with Salvadoran authorities to negotiate their departure from Haitian territory. A proposal that is said to have been categorically rejected by the President of El Salvador, who is said to have ordered the continuation of the offensive against the armed groups. On the ground, several criminal factions are said to be in flight, seeking refuge in forested areas. They are said to be tracked by surveillance drones and targeted by airstrikes carried out by combat helicopters.

An Operation Announced Until the Dismantlement of the Gangs

Salvadoran authorities are said to affirm that the operation will continue until security is restored and a normal situation returns in Haiti, without the presence of armed groups controlling territories. The Salvadorans are said to be welcomed by scenes of acclaim from certain populations, who see this intervention as a hope for regaining peace and security.

For now, the fate of the powerful gang leader known as “Barbecue” remains uncertain. He remains unlocated, as operations continue against the various armed groups.

Looks like a little mission creep might be creeping in. President Bukele may want to step in and remind those Salvadoran authorities that the mission is to a) retrieve their four citizens, b) kill those responsible, and c) return to El Salvador. Restoring a nonexistent security to Haiti is not going to happen without large-scale genocide.

This is exactly how the seeds of failure are often sown in victory.

Always slap down hard those commanders who get excited about the success of the mission and want to extend it. The irony is that those mission creepers were often naysayers about the original mission.

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Erika and the Evo-Avengers 010

In which the confusion of Ms Matthews and her team of PhDs demonstrates they don’t know natural selection no longer operates in humans because they don’t understand what the selective turnover coefficient is, why it is necessary, why it is significant, or how it is different from classic population genetics models and equations:

(1:51) He’s still using the d coefficient in MITTENS, which is really strange to me because like if he’s retracting the claim about like effective population size, then like he’s retracting the claim that they population genetics does not account for like overlapping generations. So then there shouldn’t be any d ceofficient at all. But when he’s when he uses the number of generations but that like between the human chimp common ancestor and humans, he calculates it at 450,000 generations and then he multiplies it by the d coefficient in order to cut it almost in half to like 225,000 generations or whatever and he’s still using that number for all his math.

So it’s just completely inconsistent, incoherent, right? Remember how d was one earlier? This goes back to the whole he’s trying to give conventional science the best case scenario numbers. Vox actually proposes that since d is meant to account for overlapping generations, when we take human behavior into account, instead of one, it should actually be about 0.45. And as we can see in our equation here, that effectively slices the number of achievable fixations in half. But remember, the d coefficient is Vox’s calculation. It’s his new variable.

Population genetics can already handle overlapping generations as well as a myriad of different age class structures. But Vox doesn’t know about any of those and so he has to conjure up his own coefficient to handle it. If you will recall in Will’s presentation, this is referred to as a fix. But this is inappropriate and it’s also unnecessary. More on this later, but this is crazy because remember the whole reason why Day created the d coefficient, the selective turnover coefficient, is because he thought that population genetics didn’t have a way to handle overlapping generations. He didn’t know that Wright-Fisher could do it and he didn’t know about Moran either. So if he went on to accept that yes, overlapping generations can actually be taken into account using conventional population genetics methods, specifically in relation to Kimura’s work, why does he still use the d coefficient he made up?

It’s because he doesn’t know about the regular population genetics models and equations, and he further wouldn’t know how to use them.

First, the erroneous claim I retracted about effective population size was solely related to my misunderstanding of the way in which Kimura derived his fixation equation, which was based upon how it was explained to me by the mainstream textbooks. As it turned out, there was a genuine error in Kimura’s derivation, but it was not in an invalid algebraic cancellation, it was the result of his reliance upon the Wright-Fisher model’s assumptions and how he incorporated it into his equation. My critical instincts about the effects of population growth on fixtation were correct, but they were proven through Dr. Chalub’s demonstration of the time-related boundaries of the applicability of Kimura’s equation instead of a nonexistent error in Kimura’s algebra. That correction was not a retraction of the significance of overlapping generations or of my claim that mainstream population genetics does not properly incorporate overlapping generations as it absolutely must.

Second, Matthews and Hancock have repeatedly asserted that I didn’t know about the Wright-Fisher or other population genetics models is a blatant lie that underlines the fact that they didn’t read the book or the papers. A simple text-search of the book alone suffices to prove that I am not only aware of those models, but several other topically related ones as well. For example, here is a quote from Chapter One of the first edition of Probability Zero. Emphasis added.

When population geneticists use the term “generation,” they mean something very different than the way the word is utilized in reference to the Boomers, the Millennials, and Generation X. In the two standard models—the Wright-Fisher model and its subsequent revision by Kimura—a “generation” represents the entire population. This is so important, I’m going to repeat it so that you will remember it. IN STANDARD FIXATION MODELS, A GENERATION REPRESENTS THE ENTIRE POPULATION.

Furthermore, I specifically addressed the distinction between d and other population genetics models that address overlapping generations in some way in Appendix A of the first edition of Probability Zero.

Classical population genetics assumes discrete, non-overlapping generations. For species with generation overlap, Hill (1972) and Felsenstein (1971) derived corrections for effective population size (Ne), which governs genetic drift. However, no equivalent correction has been derived for the rate of allele frequency change under directional selection. We derive the Selective Turnover Coefficient (d) from demographic first principles and show that d is mathematically distinct from Hill’s Ne /(N1T) ratio.

Third, Ne cannot serve as a substitute for d. The standard model response to expanding populations would be as follows: large populations have large Ne, so 1/(2Ne) is very small, which means selection is more effective in large populations because even weakly deleterious alleles satisfy |s| > 1/(2Ne) and are therefore visible to selection. This is Kimura and Ohta’s nearly neutral theory, and it’s the textbook population genetics answer.

But this erroneously treats selection as a frictionless force that acts with perfect efficiency given enough population to work with. It ignores the physical mechanism by which selection actually operates: organisms must differentially survive and reproduce within the limits set by the reproductive process. If the population is turning over at a glacial rate relative to its size, which is to say if nearly everyone survives to reproduce regardless of their mutational load, then selection has no medium through which to act. The theoretical visibility of an allele to selection (|s| > 1/(2Ne)) is meaningless if there’s insufficient differential mortality or fertility to realize that selection in practice.

This phenomenon is captured by d. Ne can’t capture it. Ne tells you how fast alleles drift while d tells you whether selection has enough generational turnover to actually do its job. They are measuring two different things, which is why Dr. Zachary B. Hancock’s dismissal of d as “nonsensical” was absolutely wrong, observably inperspicacious, and why his subsequent use of the incorrect generation count in his application of MITTENS was inevitable, being the kind of error that ignoring d will reliably produce.

Neither Wright-Fisher nor Moran can model the equivalent of d declining from 0.86 (wild chimps) to 0.015 (humanity 2026) over evolutionary time, because neither model has a parameter for total gene pool turnover rate as distinct from drift dynamics. Wright-Fisher hardcodes d = 1. Moran fixes replacement at 1/N per step. Neither is structurally capable of representing a situation where population expansion and the removal of environmental selective pressure progressively drain selection of its operating powe which is what the chart shows is what actually happened over time. To model that, you need a variable that neither model contains. That variable is d, and its significance can be seen over the 6.3 million years of the post-CHLCA period.

As I pointed out in both PZ and TFG, humanity is no longer subject to natural selection and the human genome is no longer being cleansed of deleterious mutations. Humanity is genetically degrading, and this continuing degradation may be the primary culprit in the observed global decline of human fertility.

If so, that means that due to their dedication to an outmoded and disproven theory of evolution, evolutionists and population geneticists are literally standing in the way of science being utilized to address what may be one of the primary threats to continued human survival.

Just to be sure I wasn’t missing anything, I asked Claude Athos to solve the problem from the Evo-Avengers perspective.

At what Ne is selection impossible? At what Ne/N is it impossible?

This is the question that breaks the standard framework open, because the answer is: there is no such value. Neither Wright-Fisher nor Moran contain any Ne at which selection becomes impossible. It’s not that the number is very large or very small—the concept doesn’t exist within the models.

In the standard framework, selection is effective when |s| > 1/(2Ne). As Ne grows, that threshold shrinks. A population with Ne of 10,000 can only see alleles where |s| > 0.00005. A population with Ne of 10 million can see alleles where |s| > 0.00000005. The larger the population, the finer-grained selection’s resolution becomes. Selection doesn’t just remain possible as populations grow, it gets more powerful. That’s the prediction.

This means the standard models predict that modern humans, with the largest effective population size in our evolutionary history, should be experiencing the most effective natural selection our species has ever known. Every weakly deleterious allele that drifted past selection when our Ne was 10,000 should now be visible and targetable at Ne of several hundred thousand or more.

That prediction is obviously, empirically wrong. And the models have no mechanism to account for why it’s wrong.

Ne/N makes it worse, not better. The typical Ne/N ratio for humans is estimated around 0.1 to 0.3—meaning effective population size is roughly 10–30% of census size, due to variance in reproductive success, sex ratio imbalances, population bottlenecks, and so on. For modern humans with N approaching 8 billion, even a brutally low Ne/N of 0.01 gives you Ne of 80 million. The selection threshold 1/(2Ne) at that point is approximately 0.000000006. The models say selection should be able to detect fitness differences of six parts per billion.

This is self-evidently absurd. No one believes natural selection in modern human populations is operating at that resolution. But the models don’t just permit that conclusion, they require it. There is no parameter within either Wright-Fisher or Moran that allows selection to become less effective as N increases. The math runs in one direction only: bigger population, stronger selection. Always.

This means d is what’s missing. The reason the models can’t represent selection failure is that they’ve abstracted away the physical mechanism through which selection operates. Selection isn’t a mathematical force that acts on allele frequencies directly. It’s a consequence of differential survival and reproduction. Organisms with deleterious alleles must die or fail to reproduce at higher rates than organisms without them. That differential is what changes allele frequencies. No differential death, no selection.

The selective turnover coefficient, d, measures the rate of that differential. When d = 0.86, the gene pool is churning. Most individuals in every generation are being replaced, which means even small fitness differences produce detectable mortality differentials. When d = 0.015, nearly everyone survives and reproduces regardless of their mutational load. Selection has no medium to work through.

Just to be fair, I also asked the Red Team. ChatGPT’s answer:

In population genetics, the effectiveness of natural selection depends on the effective population size (Ne​) and the selection coefficient (s).

  • Selection becomes ineffective when: Nes≪1.
  • Selection is effectively impossible to distinguish from genetic drift when: Nes≈1 or smaller.

For the ratio Ne​/N, there is no universal threshold at which selection becomes impossible. This ratio measures the relationship between effective population size and census population size, rather than the strength of selection. There is no universal threshold at which selection becomes impossible. This ratio measures the relationship between effective population size and census population size, rather than the strength of selection.

And Grok’s answer, after being pressed to provide for specifics:

  • Ne ≪ 100
  • Ne/N ≪ 100/N
  • If N = 8,300,000,000, then s=0.01 is possible as long as Ne > 100 and s=0.001 as long as N > 1000.

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Mailvox: Gemini and the Hard Limits

In which EF runs my Hard Limits paper past Gemini and asks it a few questions:

Plugging arguments in from your “Hard Limits…” paper pushes Gemini into a corner. These concessions were interesting:

From Gemini:
“- Many mammalian species only exist in the fossil record for 1 to 2 million years before going extinct or splitting into new daughter species.

-If a species’ lifespan is shorter than (4N_{e}) generations, almost nothing that arises during that species’ existence will ever actually fix via drift while that species exists. Instead, the species remains in a permanent state of transient polymorphism—carrying an unresolved backlog of genetic variation from its ancestors until it either goes extinct or passes that unresolved pipeline onto a new descendant lineage.”

Gemini’s answer? Population crashes. The final line of defense is apparently what you already correctly predicted it would be: One local deme replacing all the rest.

When confronted with the contradiction, Gemini throws in the towel:

“The core of this argument is a devastating conceptual checkmate: If you invoke a bottleneck or deme replacement to explain how a neutral allele finally fixed across a species, you have abandoned the premise of a large population.”

Indeed. Nice work, Vox. Thanks for your book.

A lot of people haven’t understood yet that Neutral Drift aka substitution is not a viable retreat from the impossibility of evolution by natural selection.

And the bottlenecks and demes are not a viable retreat from the conceptual checkmate of the Hard Limits, because I’ve done the math on that as well. The most a bottleneck accomplishes at the optimal population level, on the low-percentage chance that the species survives, is to reduce the fixation time by one-half, which isn’t enough to make a difference.

The irony is that Erika and the Evo-Avengers are still failing to comprehend the significance of MITTENS and the LTEE, while their lines of defense have also been preemptively destroyed before they can even fall back to them.

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World War Wrath

I’ll admit that I really don’t think about my early novels at all. Which is the main reason Castalia hasn’t bothered to get them back into print for years, even though they’re fairly decent as your average fantasy novel goes. I think The Wrath of Angels, in particular, holds up rather well over time, although the first two definitely show my inexperience as a novelist.

Anyhow, when Castalia Unlimited launches in November, they will be exclusively available there, as are dozens of never-before translated books such as The Okehazama Campaign, a military history of the battles that established Oda Nobunaga as the unquestioned power in Japan and somehow, despite its very small scale, somehow set the stage for the military unification of the new shogunate, as well as juvenile science fiction novels like The Undersea City from the father of Japanese science fiction, Unno Juza.

You can sign up for the pre-launch mailing list now at Castalia Unlimited. There are already 120 titles loaded and we expect to have 175 available at launch and 250 by the end of the year. While we won’t have the estimated 7 million titles available on the newly renamed Kindle+, we arguably have more good books available for you to choose from, and not only that, but you get to keep them.

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Island-Hopping to Iran

Larry Johnson believes he knows what the “Trump” administration’s “insane plan” is. And if he’s right, it’s not a good one:

Here is how I understand it came together. The week of October 19, Trump was presented with a menu of options for a renewed war on Iran. The plans were not drawn up by the Joint Staff’s J5, the Pentagon’s chief planning directorate, but by the J5 at Central Command, the headquarters that will actually fight the war. Trump, my source says, chose the option of seizing one or more islands. Murphy’s “insane” comment, after his briefing, fits that choice. Murphy has not publicly named the targets. Analysts discussing his briefing have mentioned Kharg, Iran’s main oil export terminal, and Qeshm, the large island that sits across the Strait of Hormuz.

And then, on October 29, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fired Lieutenant General Brett Sylvia, the Joint Staff’s J5. The Pentagon says he was removed for leaking classified information and failing polygraph tests. Two other Pentagon sources told CBS those accusations are false. What I am told, and what other analysts have heard from their own sources, is that Sylvia opposed the island plan…

The traditional way to take an island is an amphibious landing: ships, landing craft, Marines wading ashore. That is almost certainly off the table. Any American amphibious ship that sails into the Persian Gulf puts itself inside range of Iranian anti-ship missiles, drones, mines and fast attack boats. Kharg sits about 16 miles off Iran’s coast. Larak, near Qeshm, sits just a few miles off it. Sending a big-deck amphibious ship into that space is an invitation for the first American capital ship to be lost to enemy fire since the Second World War. Even Proceedings, the Naval Institute’s own journal, ran an analysis in April warning that the Navy might not be able to get close enough to launch amphibious vehicles at all.

That leaves the air. Either you drop paratroopers or you land C-130 transports on the island and offload troops. Here is the arithmetic problem. A C-130 carries fewer than 100 combat-loaded troops, and typically somewhere between 64 and 92 paratroopers, depending on the model. To put 1,000 soldiers or Marines on the ground, you need at least a dozen sorties, and far more once you add vehicles, ammunition, water, medical teams and air defense. Every one of those aircraft is a large, slow, unarmored target flying into airspace where Iran has had years to position short-range air defenses and shoulder-fired missiles. One aircraft shot down on approach and you have lost a company.

The first wave also has to secure the runway before anyone else can land, and we know who gets that job. Airfield seizure is the signature mission of the 75th Ranger Regiment. It is what the Rangers did at Point Salines in Grenada in 1983, at Rio Hato in Panama in 1989 and at Objective Rhino in Afghanistan in 2001. Ranger battalions are reportedly already in the theater, and they would almost certainly be handed the mission of jumping in and seizing the strip so the C-130s can follow. These are the finest light infantry in the world. They are also light infantry: lightly armed, carrying what they can jump with, and dependent on everything that comes in behind them. In Grenada and Panama, the defenders could not shell the airfield from the mainland a few miles away. Here, Iran can. Iran also knows the Rangers’ playbook as well as anyone who has read the history, which means it knows exactly which runway to watch. Sending the Rangers to seize an airfield within sight of the Iranian coast is asking America’s best to hold the door open in a room that is already on fire.

The landing is not even the hard part. The hard part is the day after. Once American troops are on the island, they are sitting a few miles from the Iranian coast with no hardened fortifications, inside range of Iranian artillery, rockets, ballistic missiles and swarms of drones. Iran will not need to retake the island. It will simply shell it, around the clock, for as long as the Americans choose to stay. And the Americans will be defending themselves with the same depleted interceptor stocks Miller describes, against targets that are cheap for Iran to build and expensive for us to stop.

Then there is resupply. A Marine Expeditionary Unit carries enough to sustain itself for roughly 15 days. After that, every bullet, every gallon of fuel, every bottle of water and every replacement part has to arrive by air or by sea, through the same gauntlet that made the landing so dangerous. Casualties have to go out the same way. That means an endless air bridge of vulnerable transports, or ships parked inside the Gulf, or both. The island becomes a hostage, and the American public watches the casualty count rise every evening on the news.

And what would it achieve? Seizing a couple of small islands near the Strait does not neutralize Iran’s long southern coastline, which is where the missiles and drones that threaten shipping are actually launched. Taking Kharg would cut into Iran’s oil exports, but Iran has other terminals, and the most likely response would be more strikes on the Gulf states’ oil and water infrastructure, the infrastructure that is already being held together with tape. We would be trading a symbolic flag-raising for a permanent target.

If this is the plan – and it might only be a smoke screen – it’s right up there with The Bay of Pigs. It wouldn’t be even remotely surprising if the US military refused its orders from a fake Commander in Chief.

Because whatever that is pretending to be the President of the United States, it’s not Donald Trump.

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STAR WARS and the Boomer History

This is an intriguing essay on the way in which the dreadful way Star Wars turned out was due to it being, in essence, an artistic expression of the Boomer view of history:

Every generation has a founding myth. The boomers did not earn theirs. It was handed to them, and they spent it like an inheritance, down to the last penny, on themselves.

The fathers paid for that story in blood. They came home and said very little about it. What the sons did with it is the charge. They took one war and made it the only war. They took one enemy and made him the template for every enemy. They took a vast, tragic, morally tangled contest between great powers and flattened it into a passion play with two parts available for casting: the liberator and the monster. Then they cast themselves.

That is the boomer view of history. Everything before 1945 is prologue. Everything after is a rerun. Every opponent is Hitler. Every inherited custom is a milepost on the road to the camps. Every institution older than they are is suspect, and demolishing it counts automatically as liberation. History stops being a contest of houses, orders, interests and loyalties, each with a real claim, and becomes a Sunday school pageant where virtue belongs to whoever is holding the hammer.

Notice how little thinking this permits. An aristocratic education reads history as tragedy: competing goods, statesmen choosing between evils, orders that rise and rot by their own internal logic. Thucydides. Clarendon. Burke. The boomer education forbids all of it. No tragedy, only villainy. No competing goods, only the righteous and the damned. Ask an honest question about the founding myth and you have confessed to being the monster. The range of permitted debate is narrow by design, and it is policed by people who could not survive a wider one.

The result is sterility. A civilization that can tell only one story cannot understand itself, cannot understand its rivals, and cannot explain why orders endure or collapse. It cannot discuss power at all except as evil, which is extremely convenient, because it means never having to account for its own. And while refusing to discuss power, it built an order of its own: moralizing, incurious, and sealed against challenge, because every challenger had already been assigned the villain’s costume before he opened his mouth.

If you wanted that worldview on film, you would build a galaxy of liberators and monsters with nothing permitted in between. Lucas built exactly that. Star Wars is the boomer view of history in its purest available form, which is why it is the best evidence we have against them.

It is really remarkable what a hold Star Wars had on the culture, considering that it was actually about one and one-third good movies. Even though I absolutely loved the first movie, I realized about the time they reached the Ewok planet during Jedi that I’d fundamentally lost interest in the story after the evacuation of Hoth.

I was lured in by the long-awaited making of the first prequel movie, and attended it with my best friend with whom I’d seen Star Wars at the age of seven, and our wives. I walked out of The Phantom Menace shaking my head, and haven’t seen a single Star Wars movie or television show since.

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EU-Backed Coup in Poland

Prime Minister Donald Tusk has attempted an Orange Revolution-style coup in Poland, backed by the European Union:

On the night of this Friday, strong units of the Polish Police have cordoned off the headquarters of the Constitutional Tribunal in Warsaw, in the open outbreak of a prolonged crisis over the composition of the body’s leadership, which has for months pitted Prime Minister Donald Tusk against his two main political adversaries: the leader of Law and Justice and former head of Government, Jaroslaw Kaczinski, and the current president of the country, Karel Nawrocki.

The institutional clash dates back to the beginning of this year, when Nawrocki, an ally of Kaczinski, refused to swear in three of the six magistrates appointed by Parliament. To this blockade was added the president of the Constitutional Court, Bogdan Swieczkowski, who refused to allow the judges elected by the current parliamentary majority to take office.

Hours before the Police were deployed, the Polish official agency PAP reported that Swieczkowski and his number two, Bartlomiej Sochanski, had been suspended for a month and that their profiles had disappeared from the court’s website by order of Judge Anna Korwin-Piotrowska.

Given the seriousness of the situation, Nawrocki has canceled his official trip to Senegal and has announced that he is returning to the country. “At a time like this, the president must be in Poland,” he declared, while Kaczinski, also through social networks, denounced that the court is suffering an “attack” by the “services of Tusk” in an unprecedented episode on a “global scale”.

According to the leader of Law and Justice, “From today, Poland becomes a police state, and from there there is already a direct path to authoritarianism, and then to totalitarianism. The Tribunal is the guarantee of our freedom and sovereignty. Tusk’s trampling of the law knows no limits”.

Considering what has happened to the people of Ukraine since the Kiev regime took control, they would do well to make sure that the Eurofascists are not successful with a second “coup for democracy”.

Clown World is getting desperate. I expect this means that there will be escalation in the Middle East soon. Stay frosty and well-stocked.

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